The Western Colorado Water Year 2023-2024: A Closer Look

Introduction

The water year, spanning from October 2023 to September 2024, plays a crucial role in understanding Western Colorado's water dynamics. This period is closely monitored by the Colorado Climate Center, tracking key metrics like temperature, precipitation, drought levels, stream flow, and snowpack. As climate conditions become increasingly variable, examining the water year provides insight into the region's ongoing challenges with drought and water management. This article delves into the critical observations from this water year and what they mean for the future of water in Western Colorado.

1. Temperature Trends: A Hot Year on Record

The 2023-2024 water year continued a trend of warming temperatures. Summer 2024 was particularly noteworthy, with temperatures marking the sixth warmest summer in the last 130 years.

This image is from the Colorado Climate Center’s Water Year 2024 Review

2. Precipitation Patterns: An Average Yet Critical Year

This water year saw Colorado receive 17.75 inches of precipitation, just below the average of 18.10 inches. Western Colorado's precipitation patterns reflected this statewide trend. Notably, Summer 2024 was among the wettest summers on record for the region.

Summer 2024 Precipitation: May through August saw a significant increase in precipitation; in fact, it was one of the top 10 wettest summers in 130 years, providing temporary relief for water systems.

Streamflow in Gunnison River Basin: Streamflow in the Gunnison River basin reached 100% capacity during the April-July runoff season, a positive sign for local water supplies.

3. Drought Conditions: A Temporary Reprieve

Western Colorado entered the 2023-2024 water year in a state of drought. However, by the end of the water year, the drought conditions had eased considerably. While this is a positive development, it's crucial to recognize the underlying vulnerability. According to climate models, future conditions in Colorado will likely trend towards a warmer and drier climate, with significant reductions in streamflow across the state's major river basins. These projections from the 2024 Colorado Climate Assessment suggest:

A 5% to 30% reduction in annual streamflows by 2050 compared to the 1971-2000 period.
An earlier seasonal runoff peak by 1-4 weeks, accelerating water loss and reducing storage capacity.

4. Challenges in the Colorado River System

The status of Lake Powell remains a significant concern. As of the end of this water year, Lake Powell is still in the lower 10th percentile of its full capacity. This highlights the ongoing challenges in managing the Colorado River system. Despite periods of increased precipitation, the basin remains highly susceptible to rapid deterioration. Experts warn that a single dry year could return the region to the state of crisis observed in 2021 and 2022, when water levels in reservoirs reached critically low levels.

5. The Future of Water in Western Colorado: A Warming Climate and Drying Trends

The warming climate is expected to intensify the drying effect in Colorado, as seen in soil moisture anomalies and reductions in snowpack. Increased temperatures result in higher evaporative demand, leading to less water retention in soils and streams. The future of water availability is not solely dependent on precipitation amounts; even if precipitation remains consistent, the region could still face reduced water availability due to increased evaporation and runoff timing changes.

Conclusion

The 2023-2024 water year in Western Colorado presented a mix of challenges and temporary reprieves. While some improvement in drought conditions and streamflow levels were observed, the long-term outlook remains concerning. The region continues to face the threat of significant water scarcity due to ongoing warming and the potential for more severe and frequent droughts. Effective water management strategies and planning for future climate scenarios will be critical to ensuring sustainable water supplies in the face of these challenges.

The state's water systems are highly interconnected, with changes in one area impacting the entire region. The slight recovery this year should not lead to complacency, as future projections point toward increasingly volatile water availability. Careful attention to climate trends, investment in water conservation practices, and innovative policy solutions will be vital to navigating the complex future of water in Western Colorado.

This blog post is a part of our series on Climate Change in Western Colorado. Here is a Curated Selection of Resources on Climate Change and the Colorado River: